The 2026 Exit Playbook
Is Broken.
Here's the One That Works.

Three founders told me this month they're delaying their exit because "the M&A market is too uncertain." They're wrong — and they may be about to miss the most favourable buyer window in three years.

The playbook most tech CEOs are following was written in 2021. It says: grow ARR fast, get to €10M, attract a large strategic acquirer, sell for 8–10x revenue. That playbook is dead. The strategic acquirers who drove those multiples are either distracted by AI integration programmes, preserving capital for internal projects, or operating exclusively at the very top of the market.

But here's what's actually happening — and why it's more interesting than the narrative of a broken market.

The PE Consolidation Wave Nobody Is Discussing

Private equity has never had more dry powder. Global PE firms are sitting on an estimated $3.9 trillion in uncommitted capital. Buy-and-build strategies — where a PE firm acquires a platform company and bolts on adjacent businesses — are running at their highest pace in a decade. And the specific deal range these firms are targeting? €2M–€25M ARR vertical SaaS businesses in Europe.

European M&A deal value grew 24% in the second half of 2025, driven largely by US and Gulf-based acquirers targeting digital businesses. Technology was the leading sector by deal count. And in 2025, PE-backed buy-and-build strategies accounted for approximately 58% of all SaaS M&A transactions globally.

These aren't passive buyers waiting to be approached. They're running active origination programmes, often through dedicated sourcing teams and intermediaries. The question isn't whether buyers exist for your business. It's whether your business is positioned to attract the right ones.

The Bifurcation Problem

The market isn't uniformly depressed — it's bifurcated. That distinction is worth understanding clearly, because it changes how you should be thinking about exit timing and preparation.

At one end: well-positioned vertical SaaS businesses with Net Revenue Retention above 110%, Rule of 40 scores above 50, and a defensible moat in a specific industry are transacting at 6–8x ARR. For a business at €7M ARR, that's a €42M–€56M outcome.

At the other end: undifferentiated horizontal platforms with declining NRR and mediocre margins are seeing multiples compress toward 3–4.5x. The gap between these two outcomes is not accidental — it is entirely the product of preparation, positioning, and process.

"Competition amongst buyers is what drives multiples. Everything else is negotiation."

The Framework: What Determines Your Multiple

After advising on technology M&A transactions across Europe and North America — and having sat in the founder's chair through multiple exits myself — these are the five variables I see move the needle most in the current market.

The first three are operational — they require time to build and cannot be manufactured in the weeks before a process. This is why the window matters. Founders who are already at NRR 105% have a realistic path to 110%+ within 18 months. Those at 90% are a different conversation entirely.

Synergetic Value: The Most Underused Lever

Most founders enter an exit process knowing their standalone value. They know their ARR, their growth rate, their margin. What the best-prepared founders walk in with is something different: a clear articulation of synergetic value for specific buyer types.

Synergetic value is what an acquirer can do with your business that they couldn't do without it. It includes cross-sell into their customer base, cost of building versus buying the capability, the regulatory or IP moat you've created, and the talent that comes with you. A PE firm buying you as a bolt-on to an existing portfolio company often has a very different synergy calculus than a strategic acquirer in your vertical.

Articulating this clearly — and targeting buyers where the synergy is largest — is what unlocks premiums materially above market-rate multiples.

The Buyer Universe: Build It Before You Need It

The single most actionable thing a founder can do today is map their buyer universe. Not as a theoretical exercise. As a live, maintained strategic asset.

• Identify 8–12 specific acquirers — both strategic and financial — who would benefit most from owning your business
• For each, document the synergetic value your business creates for them specifically
• Track their M&A activity, portfolio companies, and stated strategic priorities
• Note their preferrred deal structures, typical EBITDA thresholds, and acquisition history

Founders who do this work before entering a process consistently achieve outcomes 20–35% above those who rely on inbounds or engage an intermediary without a pre-built thesis. The list is not a contact sheet. It's a negotiating position.

On Timing: The Window Is Not Indefinite

The conditions that make this a favourable market for well-positioned sellers — PE dry powder, declining rates, active buy-and-build appetite — do not persist indefinitely. Rate environments shift. PE deployment cycles tighten. Buyer attention moves.

The founders I speak with who are planning to "wait another year" are making a specific bet: that their business will be materially stronger in twelve months, and that market conditions will remain at least as favourable. Both assumptions deserve rigorous stress-testing rather than optimistic assumption.

The right time to begin exit preparation is not when you've decided to sell. It's 18–24 months before that decision — whilst there's still time to move the operational metrics that determine your multiple.

CEO Tip

Map your buyer universe before you need it. Identify 8–12 specific acquirers — strategic and financial — who would benefit most from owning your business. For each, document what you are worth to them specifically, not just what you're worth in the abstract. That document is your most valuable strategic asset. Build it now, whilst you have the time to act on what you find.